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Friday, March 31, 2017

Brexit: UK PM Theresa May triggered Article 50

Divorce is never easy. To start with, law in the United Kingdom has been a mixture of European Union laws and domestic laws. These now must be reconciled. And that's the easy part since it can all be done within England.

England must now navigate the tricky waters of negotiating with the EU on a host of issues including trade deals with the EU and trade deals with the rest of the world, since England is now a separate entity. This alone will be tedious and time-consuming.

Additionally, England will be negotiating regarding other matters ranging from immigration to asylum seekers to law enforcement.

The articles may have been triggered, but the process will take years to complete.


In the meantime, back in the business world, various companies will be deciding what they should do (article by Newsweek) and how Brexit will affect their long-term plans and places of work. 



In-depth questions and answers regarding the Brexit process can be found in this article by CNN

Thursday, March 16, 2017

Up, up, and away! The Fed raises interest rates again

The Fed, citing a strengthening economy, raised the benchmark interest rate target to between 0.75% and 1% and indicated another two interest rate hikes could be expected for 2017. Following years of zero interest rate policy, the aggressive move to normalization signal the Fed has more confidence in the strength of the US recovery. The Financial Sector benefits the most as easy money is drained from the financial system.


Read about the Fed's decision here


Wednesday, March 8, 2017

To buy oil, or not to buy oil, that is the question

The horror show that has been crude prices since late 2014 seems to repeat itself in cycles. First is the watershed selling on the news of impending doom, then the cautious-turned-into-frenzied buying as investors assume the worst is over. We now appear to be on that downward slide into the abyss once again.

Another supply-side issue appears to have reared its ugly head, as relentlessly-rising USA commercial inventory levels become impossible to ignore. This last week, oil inventories rose to about 528M barrels, or levels last seen in 1982. The conclusion is that the world is awash in oil and there just aren't enough storage locations to put all of it.

Since OPEC - and Russia - surprised the markets with their decision to cap production back in November, crude prices have been largely bullish. IEA data that showed upwards of 90% of producer compliance with those production caps seemed even more so.

However, oil supply levels have been dropping more slowly than expected, while North American shale producers are pumping out even more crude (upwards of 9 million barrels per day most recently) as they nickel-and-dime their way into extracting oil more cheaply from shale deposits. Futures markets now seem to be quickly positioning themselves for the potential that oil prices will be remain subdued for longer than originally anticipated.

In-depth article on expanding US oil inventories and the futures market here