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Wednesday, April 26, 2017

President Trump's tax reform details are (partially) here!

President Trump's long-awaited and long-anticipated tax reform details are finally here! And they are, well, very lacking in details. However, the overview, a bullet point, one-page summary which looks something like an executive summary of a complex document does have a few numbers and guidelines.

Details include:
  • a 15% corporate tax rate
  • a territorial-based tax system
  • a one-time tax on oversees cash stockpiles
  • Eliminate special interests
  • Simply individual tax code and repeal estate tax
Read summary of details on Trump's tax plan
https://www.vox.com/2017/4/26/15438404/trump-tax-plan-april-mnuchin-cohn-changes

President Trump's tax plan details include items that would potentially be of most benefit to small domestic businesses, which currently pay close to a 35% tax rate, and attempt to penalize corporations that stash trillions of dollars worth of cash in various tax abodes by taxing holdings.

Overall, businesses and shareholders would benefit under the system, although for large corporations the effect of the changes would be more minimal.

For individuals, President Trump plans on simplifying the system by eliminating deductions and reducing the number of tax brackets. The elimination of the estate ("death") tax is also given priority. Overall, most individuals - and especially high-net-worth individuals - stand to benefit the most.

In-depth: analysis of Trump's plan https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/25/us/politics/tax-plan-trump.html


Tuesday, April 25, 2017

Volatility in the USA's S&P 500

The world of European geopolitics and USA equities collided hard today as a centrist politician won the majority of votes in a preliminary voting round in France. After the rise of anti-European Union voices and the surprise of the Brexit vote from last year, investors were relieved to see signs of unity within the European Union and what looks to be a solid win by a pro-business candidate like Emmanuel Macron.

The VIX fell sharply, down nearly -20%, to about 12 by the end of the day. Gold, US Treasuries also sold off. The Euro climbed and equity markets worldwide also rose sharply. Recent bullish positions for defensive investment instruments built up into the pre-election French vote, and today's movement may partially be due to the unwinding of some of these positions.

Read about why the VIX plunged below
http://www.businessinsider.com/vix-plunging-the-most-since-trumps-election-2017-4

Wednesday, April 19, 2017

British pound spikes higher after UK PM Theresa May surprises markets

The United Kingdom's PM Theresa May unexpectedly called for a general election in June. Just prior to the announcement the pound declined before moving sharply higher once the content was known. More uncertainty is welcome in this case, since a hard break with the European Union had been assumed in recent weeks.

Now let's jump on the topic of Forex Trading. The world of currencies is filled with monsters of all shapes and sizes, but for the most part, they're huge, scary, and unpredictable. The author's argument has always been that trading Forex as a retail investor (small or large) is little more than gambling unless it's employed as some sort of hedging strategy. Central Banks can be unpredictable too, subject to the whims of political parties or out of necessary in the face of developing situations (think of the day that wiped out many retail investors and also some exchanges when the Swiss Central Bank unexpectedly abandoned the Franc's peg to the Euro back in early days of 2015).

The ability to trade 24 hours / day can be appealing, but for the most part, Forex traders can do little more than hope and pray that an unexpected monster doesn't rise up to take them by surprise.

Read about the Pound's spike in the article below
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/04/18/pound-touches-three-week-high-against-us-dollar-ftse-100-suffers/

Friday, April 14, 2017

The US Dollar was just talked down by the US President

So, these things happen in 2017. Markets and individual publicly-traded companies have learned over the past few months to adjust to unexpected criticism from President Trump's twitter account or off-the-cuff remarks.

Today, however, the US dollar saw a sharp -0.5% fall intraday after President Trump commented that the dollar was "getting too strong" and that the Fed should keep interest rates low. Apparently the currency markets are still adjusting to the new president's communication methods.

Read how the US dollar and several currency pairs have been reacting to recent news in this report by Bloomberg