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Wednesday, May 17, 2017

Donald Trump said What?!? Former FBI Director Comey's memo

Another month, another situation. This time, now-fired FBI Director James Comey claims that President Trump tried to end the FBI's Russia probe into former aid Michael Flynn. Investors worry that as uncertainty rises over potential collusion between Trump's election team and the Russian government could threaten to sideline the much-promised and still looked-for tax reform, infrastructure development and deregulation initiatives.

See this article for details on the US market day: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/james-comey-memo-stock-market/

Betting against the VIX has been a winning game for most of the year, but occasionally investors do get rude, unexpected awakenings, like today with Comey's memo, in which he claims President Trump tried to intervene to end the FBI's probe of a former Trump aide. The VIX jumped about 20% on the news as the S&P 500 and other major indexes quickly declined to close lower for the day.

More information on the VIX: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-18/vix-surge-is-unwelcome-lesson-in-duplicity-of-volatility-wagers

Tuesday, May 16, 2017

Ransomware WannaCry strikes the world

More than 200,000 computer systems in more than 150 countries were hit by crippling ransomware program WannaCry (Wcrypt). Asia and Eastern Europe appeared hardest hit (through widespread use of pirated versions of Windows), with the attacks causing disruptions among hospitals and transportation systems.

In-depth article:  https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/13/world/asia/cyberattacks-online-security-.html

The program is likely based off of a leaked NSA hacking tool EternalBlue that utilizes a vulnerability in unpatched and pirated Windows systems. Limiting the scope of damage in North America was the discovery of a website-based kill switch by a researcher, who bought the domain name and halted the spread of the ransomware.

Questions have been raised whether this attack was merely to cause damage rather than profit. One thing is for certain, the specter of cybercriminals potentially disrupting computer systems on a mass global scale has risen.

Later updates and economic considerations of WannaCry here: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/wannacry-ransomware-attacks-wannacry-virus-losses/

Conjecture
What if next time these hackers turn their attention to a digital financial exchange like those in New York or London (think of the "digital bomb" planted in the Nasdaq back in 2010)? The internet is both wonderful and dangerous, but this attack shows it may not take much to bring down the house.

News of WannaCry will most likely see the stock prices of cybersecurity firms bid sharply up as companies seek to protect themselves from digital attacks. Some months back I wasn't sure what to make of cybersecurity ETFs, but the author is sure that the creator of the ETF "HACK" has seen some reward around the uncertainty of ransomware.

Friday, May 5, 2017

WTI prices experienced a flash crash in overnight trading

By the time equity markets closed last night, traders probably thought oil prices had done their worst, plunging more than -7% through Thursday. Then, overnight, came the flash crash. But first, some more background. As oil prices fell these last several weeks, they passed right through some key technical levels, leaving market participants vulnerable to potential margin calls. Thursday the third-largest volume of WTI contracts on record traded hands.

In Friday's Asian trading hours, with western markets closed, WTI prices suddenly plunged through both the $45/barrel and the $44/barrel marks. WTI contract volume skyrocketed from the average of hundreds to the more than seven thousand in minutes as market participants were forced to liquidate positions. The exact cause of the sell-off is unknown although analysts and traders strongly suspect that recent events coupled with a blend of margin calls and algorithmic trading were to blame.

The rise of computer trading has brought significant scrutiny and publicity to what was eventually termed high frequency trading.  However, among the many flash crashes in commodities, equities, and currencies that have been observed over these last several years, usually some form of human error triggered a whale's (large market participant, say a hedge fund) algorithm to sell, which in turn led to other algorithms to sell. Flash crash bottoms usually form at circuit breakers or when human participants realize prices have reached irrational levels.

In-depth discussion with some technical details: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-05/five-charts-that-explain-crude-oil-s-sudden-nosedive-toward-45