What have policy makers learned from the 2008 financial crisis?

There's no doubt that investors have been forced to move up the risk curve in search of yield amid the Fed's easy money policy. But with tightening, when will investors feel the need to move back down? Can policymakers actively force this move or merely respond to market conditions? What have policy makers learned?

Mohamed El-Erian discusses regulators, banks, and the financial crisis in a solid article for Financial News: https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/el-erian-the-lost-lesson-of-the-financial-crisis-20170818?

But what about Retailers?

Retail outlook has deteriorated for about five years now - a struggle longer than that of the commodities markets - with major retailers decreasing physical store presence amid fierce competition and the rising specter that haunts every company's conference calls: the Jeff Bezos-run behemoth Amazon.

Traditional retailers have been working on redesign of physical stores and an increase in their digital presence to maintain sales. Investor expectations for the sector remain quite low, with declining foot traffic that still exceeds estimates being cheered as a win. However, mall traffic appears to be picking up slightly.

Amid widespread short positions across the industry (outside of TJX Companies?), good news - or even just less bad news - from retailers could provide gains for investors who are willing to take a risk. Even so, the entire industry has much to prove, and sometimes during times of uncertainty, the best place for the investor is to sit on the sidelines, watching and waiting for the right moment to pounce.

Fairly in-depth discussion of the retail sector can be found here: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/11/business/dealbook/retail-wall-street-macys-jc-penney.html

Historic performance of hedge fund stars isn't always an indicator of future success

The Astenbeck Master Commodities Fund II, the flagship fund of renowned oil trader Andrew Hall, is closing down following an almost -30% loss recorded for the first half of 2017. Capitulation comes after Blackstone arranged to remove investments.

Many oil traders at respected institutions worldwide have been caught flat-footed and on the wrong side of the trade amid struggling oil prices. The thesis that the historic OPEC and Russian production cap deal would gradually drain the world of excess oil supplies was called into question following a sharp rise in North American shale production and rising output from Iraq, Libya, and Nigeria.

During the commodities boom years up into 2014, hedge funds focused in commodities made incredible, outsized gains as prices shot higher and remained elevated. Since the collapse of oil prices - and the more widespread collapse of various sectors of the commodities market - these same funds have mostly suffered from underperformance due to the concentrated, leveraged nature of their positions.

Read an in-depth overview of the closing down of the Astenbeck Hedge Fund here: https://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-trader-andrew-hall-is-closing-his-astenbeck-hedge-fund-1501776384

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Past performance of wealth managers - sometimes the result of educated guesses that yielded wildly successful results - doesn't always guarantee that future investments will be successful.

Andrew Hall gained respect, fame, and wealth through his call of an oil bottom in 2003, in which he bought futures contracts years ahead that reaped a fortune as oil prices recovered.

John Paulson comes to mind. He personally gained almost $5 billion in profits by effectively betting against the U.S. subprime mortgage lending market just prior to the financial crisis, but has struggled attracting client funds and recently closed down an albeit smaller fund. Perhaps speaking to his contrarian investment successes, the closed fund specialized in shorting the current equity market.

John Paulson recently closed down a fund too https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-27/paulson-winds-down-long-short-equity-fund-amid-strategy-refocus

In a somewhat related case, Eddie Lampert went from a rising hedge fund star to superstardom - and billionaire status - after he negotiated the takeover of a bankrupt K-mart and used the resulting company to acquire retail giant Sears, Roebuck and Co. Since that time, he has tried his hand at managing Sears Holdings, with very limited success to say the least.

The Street was very blunt in its assessment of struggling Sears Holdings https://www.thestreet.com/story/14232336/1/sears-is-still-headed-for-a-fiery-ugly-death-despite-200-million-gift-from-its-best-friend.html