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Thursday, February 23, 2017

Protest camp at Dakota Access Pipeline site closed by authorities

Authorities arrested remaining occupants of the protest camp located near Cannonball, North Dakota, at a portion of the construction site for the Dakota Access Pipeline. The pipeline is nearly complete outside of a 1.25 mile stretch of pipeline near tribal land at Lake Oahe in North Dakota.

As one of his last moves in office, on December 4th, former President Obama halted completion of the pipeline by revoking permission for Energy Transfer Partners, the pipeline owner, to use Federal land there pending an Army Corps of Engineers assessment.

Upon assuming office, President Trump almost immediately reversed this and allowed construction of the $3.8 billion pipeline to continue. Oil is expected to flow through the pipeline by April.

This development is a huge boon to oil and gas producers in North Dakota and will greatly reduce the cost of bringing their oil to market, as shipping crude through pipelines is both safer and cheaper than by rail.

In-depth discussion on the pipeline is found here.

Thursday, February 9, 2017

Vive la France! Frexit fears rise as global populism appears on the rise

Firstly, long, long ago - in the days of September 2014 - there was a referendum held to establish whether or not Scotland would secede from England. The Scots wanted their independence. What was first almost dismissed as a fantasy nearly became reality before some last minute diplomacy, lobbying, and concessions turned the tide again towards unity.

Next came Grexit, the fear that Greece would exit the EU to avoid the effects of a strong Euro. Greece ended up staying in the EU.

Then came Brexit -- but this time, the unexpected happened. The British people voted AGAINST the establishment and decided to leave the EU, primarily over immigration policies, and caused the collapse of the British government.

After this came Donald Trump, an anti-establishment candidate who almost single-handedly defeated the establishment in BOTH political parties to become President of the United States. He won primarily with an economic policy of protectionism.

Finally, comes Frexit. Over the past several weeks, the far-right leader Marine Le Pen has gained considerable political traction in the French election process. Ms. Pen promises the French people that she would leave the Eurozone in favor of a redonominated Franc, and restructure outstanding debt in favor of the new currency to boot. Investors, the ECB, and the EU are not pleased with these proposals, with investors responding by selling off French debt ahead of the elections later this April.

In-depth: The rise of Marine Le Pen is causing consternation among investors

Friday, February 3, 2017

With the stroke of a pen, Dodd-Frank is dead

While not directly repealing the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, President Trump signed a sweeping directive that gives the Treasury Department the ability to change the act's core provisions to mirror his administration's stance.

The financial industry strongly supported this move, saying regulations enacted since the 2008 financial crisis had become too burdensome, citing costs associated with large expansions in legal/compliance departments.

While the effect on the consumer may be uncertain, the moves President Trump made today are definitely a boon to the Financial industry. As expected, the S&P 500 Financial Sector outperformed today and recouped losses experienced earlier in the week. Tailwinds to the industry have definitely picked up, with the Fed in the process of normalizing interest rates and now the President loosening regulations.

Read about Trump's directive and the effects on the Dodd-Frank act and the Financial industry here