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Thursday, February 9, 2017

Vive la France! Frexit fears rise as global populism appears on the rise

Firstly, long, long ago - in the days of September 2014 - there was a referendum held to establish whether or not Scotland would secede from England. The Scots wanted their independence. What was first almost dismissed as a fantasy nearly became reality before some last minute diplomacy, lobbying, and concessions turned the tide again towards unity.

Next came Grexit, the fear that Greece would exit the EU to avoid the effects of a strong Euro. Greece ended up staying in the EU.

Then came Brexit -- but this time, the unexpected happened. The British people voted AGAINST the establishment and decided to leave the EU, primarily over immigration policies, and caused the collapse of the British government.

After this came Donald Trump, an anti-establishment candidate who almost single-handedly defeated the establishment in BOTH political parties to become President of the United States. He won primarily with an economic policy of protectionism.

Finally, comes Frexit. Over the past several weeks, the far-right leader Marine Le Pen has gained considerable political traction in the French election process. Ms. Pen promises the French people that she would leave the Eurozone in favor of a redonominated Franc, and restructure outstanding debt in favor of the new currency to boot. Investors, the ECB, and the EU are not pleased with these proposals, with investors responding by selling off French debt ahead of the elections later this April.

In-depth: The rise of Marine Le Pen is causing consternation among investors